Potential distribution and bioclimatic profile of mistletoes in Quercus L. forests in Durango
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29298/rmcf.v17i94.1598Keywords:
arceuthobium M. Bieb., forest disease, MaxEnt, infestation levels, oaks, phoradendron NuttAbstract
Oak forests have been subject to agroforestry practices that have caused serious problems with disease (severe infections by parasitic plants), notably mistletoes of the genera Arceuthobium and Phoradendron, which cause deformities and tree death. For Durango, information on the potential distribution of mistletoes, linked to biotic and abiotic variables, is considered scarce. This research generated potential distribution models of both types of mistletoe (Arceuthobium spp. and Phoradendron spp.) on the genus Quercus and established the variables that influence their dispersal within the state of Durango, and in this way project areas with high predisposition and facilitate their control. For this purpose, 19 bioclimatic variables and oak presence data were used and analyzed with the MaxEnt®. To validate the model, response curves (omitting/commission analysis) and sensitivity analysis (Receptor Operated Curve [ROC]-Area under the curve [AUC]) were used to measure the effect of each variable. An estimated 48 000 hectares (high suitability) could be affected by Phoradendron spp., due to its high dispersal. Furthermore, the most important variables for modeling the analyzed species were temperature (minimum temperature of the coldest month [°C]) and precipitation (precipitation of the coldest quarter [mm]), as these directly influenced their spread.
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